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Vol. I · Archived editionThursday, July 23, 2026Archive
OddsXray
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Politics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Politics · Flat

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Dead even at 60%, parked for now.

60%
Implied probability · Toss-Up
—
24h move
$7.6M
Volume traded
2026-10-04
Resolves

What it resolves on

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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