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Vol. I · Archived editionMonday, July 20, 2026Archive
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The Board › Markets
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Markets · Firming Fast

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?

Heavily favored at 97%; conviction's spiking. Conviction, priced live.

97%
Implied probability · Near Lock
▲ 20
24h move
$136K
Volume traded
2026-07-20
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 18 12:00 PM ET to July 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

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