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OddsXray · The Board Friday, August 21, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Firming

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

An uphill bet at 16% — slightly stronger today. Conviction, priced live.

16%
Implied probability · Unlikely
▲ 4
24h move
$211K
Volume traded
2026-10-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

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