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OddsXray · The Board Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Live prices
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The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Firming Fast

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

The smart money treats it as done — 90%, surging 14 points in 24 hours. Sharps are watching.

90%
Implied probability · Near Lock
▲ 14
24h move
$130K
Volume traded
2026-08-02
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.

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