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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Fading

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

At 4%, the market barely believes it; the air's coming out. Not noise — money.

4%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▼ 2
24h move
$138K
Volume traded
2026-08-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

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