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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Fading

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?

Out in front at 82% — softening, down 6.

82%
Implied probability · Likely
▼ 6
24h move
$133K
Volume traded
2026-09-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.

If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

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