How to read a Polymarket wallet
The record is public. Almost nobody reads their own.
Polymarket settles on-chain, so a wallet’s entire trading history — every fill, every exit, every resolution — is public and permanent. That makes it possible to answer questions about a trader that on any other venue would be unanswerable, including your own.
Read them in this order
- 1. Realised P&L, settled onlyWhat has actually resolved. Open positions marked at current prices are a forecast of a result, not a result.
- 2. Money actually riskedThe denominator. Profit without it cannot be compared to anything.
- 3. Distinct marketsBreadth. Ten distinct settled markets is a small sample; one enormous market is not a sample at all.
- 4. Return by price bandWhere the money comes from and where it leaks. Long shots and near-locks behave completely differently and most wallets are quietly terrible at exactly one band.
- 5. Staking disciplineDoes size track conviction, or mood? Compare each stake to the wallet’s own median. Size that spikes after a loss is a habit, not a strategy.
- 6. Exit qualityWhat holding to resolution would have paid, against what was actually taken. This is the most commonly negative number in the whole battery.
- 7. Drawdown survivedThe worst stretch, and what the wallet did during it.
Which numbers are noise
Win rate on its own. A 70% win rate on small wins and rare enormous losses is a losing book that reads as a winning one. Total volume — that measures activity, not skill. Any figure over a window short enough that one market dominates it. And current unrealised P&L, which is a price, not an outcome.
Doing it without doing it by hand
This is a few thousand rows for an active wallet, which is why almost nobody does it. The free scan runs the whole battery on any public Polymarket address — yours or anyone else’s — and returns the realised record, the percentile against the field and the single most expensive habit it finds. It is read-only public data; you never connect a wallet and there are no keys involved. The same computation, run on the wallets we track, is what produces the ledger.
Questions
Can you see anyone's Polymarket trades?
Yes. Polymarket settles on-chain, so every wallet's fills, exits and resolutions are public and permanent — including wallets that are not yours.
What should I look at first in a wallet?
Realised profit on settled positions, then the money actually risked, then how many distinct markets produced it. Those three decide whether anything else is worth reading.
Is win rate a good measure?
On its own, no. A high win rate with rare large losses is a losing record that looks like a winning one. Win rate only means something read against sizing and exits.