Reference // the file
How prediction markets actually work
Definitions, arithmetic, and the parts the category prefers not to define.
Short reference pages on the mechanics: what a price implies, what the fees really are, what edge means, how markets resolve, and why the numbers everyone quotes about traders’ results are usually the wrong numbers. Every external claim carries its source and the date it was read.
The pages
- What is smart money in prediction markets
Everybody sells the phrase. Almost nobody defines it. - How Polymarket fees work
It is a curve that peaks at fifty cents, which is where everybody trades. - Implied probability explained
The price is the forecast. Reading it is arithmetic; trusting it is not. - Why P&L leaderboards lie
Ranking by profit is ranking by luck, with skill as a rounding error at the top. - Removing the vig
The margin is not hidden. It is just spread across both prices so you never see it as a line item. - What is edge in prediction markets
Edge is a disagreement you can defend, priced after costs. Everything else is a feeling. - Kelly criterion for prediction markets
A formula for how much, given that you already know how likely. That second half is the hard part. - How Polymarket markets resolve
Nobody at Polymarket decides. A bonded proposal does, unless somebody challenges it. - Maker vs taker on Polymarket
One of you supplies the liquidity. The other one pays for it. - How to read a Polymarket wallet
The record is public. Almost nobody reads their own. - Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
One quotes you a margin. The other charges you a fee. They are not the same number and they do not behave the same way. - What makes a track record real
A record that only contains wins is not a record. It is an advertisement with dates on it.
Do the arithmetic
The Wire · the paid half
The record is free. The calls, while they are still open, are $12 a week or $49 a month.
Everything that has resolved is on the ledger for nothing, permanently, no account. What you pay for is time: the call at the moment the rule fires, at the price it fired at, on your own live page.
See what it costs →