In the Moment
How it feels
The move feels too dramatic, so you want to fade it before checking which assumptions survived.
Slow down: List the assumptions that existed before the event and mark which ones still survive after it.
Warning Signs
What to watch for
- The event changes what people think is possible.
- Linked markets move together.
- Institutions react after the first public shock.
- You keep saying the move is too big without naming the old assumption that survived.
Where It Appears
Common territory
Debates, scandals, withdrawals, court shocks, surprise reports, and linked political markets.
Historical example: Biden Debate Collapse
Clinic Connection
Related Contract Clinic step
Likely crowd mistake
Use this trap as a diagnostic layer while filling the worksheet. The trap tells you which part of the market deserves slower inspection.
Open Contract ClinicDefensive Rule
Copy this rule
Do not fade a violent repricing until you can state which old assumption survived the new event.
No-Play Trigger
When to pass
If your only reason to oppose the move is that it feels too large, no-play until the assumptions are rechecked.
Connected Product Loop
This trap links back into prompts, resources, Second Stake, and autopsies so it becomes part of the system instead of a loose definition.