The first historical deck
Five modules form the launch deck: crowd failure, favorite fragility, partial information, contract wording, and institutional lag. Each now has a fake-money decision interface and staged review.

01
Crowd Failure · 2016
Brexit Remain Trap
A market can look calm, confident, and institutionally favored while still being structurally vulnerable.
Player pressure: The favorite feels protected by consensus. The contrarian side feels embarrassing until it suddenly does not.
Trap: Consensus Trap
Bankroll $1,0005 choicesstaged reveal

02
Favorite Fragility · 2016
Clinton Lock 2016
A likely outcome is not an inevitable outcome, even when nearly every visible authority sounds aligned.
Player pressure: Every visible authority makes the favorite feel responsible and the longshot feel reckless.
Trap: Favorite Bias
Bankroll $1,0005 choicesstaged reveal

03
Partial Information · 2020
Red Mirage 2020
Partial information can look like final information when it arrives with enough speed and confidence.
Player pressure: The screen looks decisive before the information is complete. Waiting feels like missing the move.
Trap: Early Count Trap
Bankroll $1,0005 choicesstaged reveal

04
Contract Wording · Case Study
Titan Resolution Clause
The headline version of a market and the actual contract can quietly be different markets.
Player pressure: The event feels obvious. The contract does not.
Trap: Resolver Blind Spot
Bankroll $1,0005 choicesstaged reveal

05
Narrative Collapse · 2024
Biden Debate Collapse
Some markets do not reprice gradually; they break when the narrative underneath them breaks.
Player pressure: The screen moves fast and everyone wants to explain the move before the evidence pipeline is complete.
Trap: Narrative Collapse
Bankroll $1,0005 choicesstaged reveal