Glossary Term · Reference 055
Resolver
The source, authority, or rule-maker used to settle the market.
Field note: A market can be culturally obvious and still resolve differently if the resolver requires a narrower standard.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Resolution Criteria
The exact condition required for the market to close YES, NO, or another outcome.
Field note: Criteria beat vibes. If the criteria are unclear, action should slow down.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Edge Case
A situation near the border where reasonable people may disagree about whether the condition is satisfied.
Field note: Edge cases are not footnotes. They are often where the price is hiding the risk.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
No-Play
A deliberate decision not to act because the setup is not clean enough.
Field note: No-play is a position against forced action.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Favorite Bias
The mistake of treating the most likely outcome as if it is protected from surprise.
Field note: Likely is not inevitable. Price still matters.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Crowd Consensus
A broad shared belief that can be informative, comforting, or dangerously overtrusted.
Field note: Consensus is evidence, not armor.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Repricing
A rapid market adjustment after new information changes assumptions, probability, or narrative frame.
Field note: The key question is whether the move is panic, correction, or structural update.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Event vs Announcement
The difference between something happening and something being officially announced, confirmed, certified, or recognized.
Field note: Many markets are not about reality alone. They are about recognized reality.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Early Count
Partial data that arrives before the full evidence set and may create a misleading first impression.
Field note: Early does not mean representative.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Narrative Collapse
The moment an old market story breaks and traders must update the frame, not just the number.
Field note: A collapse does not guarantee the opposite is true, but it does demand fresh reasoning.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Hidden Assumption
An unstated belief that supports the trade without being tested.
Field note: The assumption you do not write down is usually the one that hurts you.
Open ResourceGlossary Term · Reference 055
Contract Wording
The exact language that governs what the market is asking and how it resolves.
Field note: The title is the invitation. The wording is the market.
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