In the Moment
How it feels
The favorite feels adult, safe, and responsible; the other side feels unserious until it wins.
Slow down: Ask what price would be fair if nobody told you which side was socially preferred.
Warning Signs
What to watch for
- The favorite feels inevitable.
- You cannot state the unlock condition.
- You mock the other side instead of pricing it.
- You size based on comfort, not evidence.
Where It Appears
Common territory
Election favorites, market leaders, incumbent narratives, and heavily discussed public outcomes.
Historical example: Clinton Lock 2016
Clinic Connection
Related Contract Clinic step
Research questions
Use this trap as a diagnostic layer while filling the worksheet. The trap tells you which part of the market deserves slower inspection.
Open Contract ClinicDefensive Rule
Copy this rule
Likely is not locked. Price the favorite as uncertainty, not social permission.
No-Play Trigger
When to pass
If you cannot describe the favorite’s failure path without sarcasm, pass.
Connected Product Loop
This trap links back into prompts, resources, Second Stake, and autopsies so it becomes part of the system instead of a loose definition.