When to use it
Before deciding whether your thesis deserves real confidence.
Warning: If a thesis cannot survive pressure, the price probably does not matter yet.
Related module: Question Vault
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Assumption ladder with weakest link and verification plan.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Hidden Assumption Trap
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
9–10: research questions and decision note
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Biden Debate Collapse
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
Stress-test this prediction-market thesis: [paste thesis] Answer: 1. What assumption must be true for this thesis to work? 2. Which assumption is weakest? 3. What public event could reverse it? 4. What hidden information could make it wrong? 5. What price would make this thesis unattractive? 6. What should I verify before acting? 7. What would make No-Play the correct answer? Do not give me a betting recommendation. Test the reasoning.
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic