When to use it
After you think you found an edge and want to make sure you are not just excited.
Warning: The goal is to weaken overconfidence before money gets involved.
Related module: Clinton Lock 2016
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Steelman against your view, strongest reason to wait, and verification list.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Favorite Bias / Thesis Attachment
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
8–10: likely crowd mistake, research questions, decision note
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Clinton Lock 2016
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
My thesis for this prediction market is: [paste thesis] Build the strongest opposing case. Include: 1. Why my thesis may be wrong 2. What the market may already understand 3. What evidence I may be ignoring 4. What would make my position fragile 5. The single best reason not to act yet 6. The cleanest evidence that would change my mind Do not be polite. Be accurate.
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic