When to use it
After choosing a fake-money stake in Second Stake or before sizing a real position.
Warning: Conviction without calibration is just emotion with a dollar amount.
Related module: Second Stake
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Stake discipline review with confidence, uncertainty, downside, and No-Play comparison.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Conviction Without Calibration
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
10: decision note
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Second Stake
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
Review my stake size decision. Market/module: [paste] Position/posture: [paste] Stake size: [paste] Reasoning: [paste] Answer: 1. What confidence level does this stake imply? 2. What uncertainty did I ignore? 3. Does the size match the evidence? 4. Would Hedge, Wait, or No-Play have been cleaner? 5. What stake size would be more disciplined and why?
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic