When to use it
When your thesis feels obvious and you need to know whether the market already priced it.
Warning: A correct thesis can still be a bad trade if everyone already knows it.
Related module: Elite Daily Board
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Known/unknown/priced/unpriced breakdown.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Obvious Edge Trap
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
8–10: crowd mistake, research questions, decision note
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Brexit Remain Trap
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
Analyze whether this thesis is already priced in. Market: [paste] My thesis: [paste] Current price/context: [paste] Answer: 1. What facts are already obvious to the market? 2. What might still be underpriced? 3. What would a smart opposing trader say? 4. Is my view differentiated or just confident? 5. What evidence would prove the market is asleep? 6. What evidence would prove I am late?
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic