When to use it
When multiple sources are reporting different versions of the same event.
Warning: A source can be true and still not be the resolving source.
Related module: Contract Clinic
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Source hierarchy: official, semi-official, media, rumor, irrelevant.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Source Confusion
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
3: resolver / authority
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Red Mirage 2020
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
Build a source hierarchy for this market. Market wording: [paste] Possible sources/evidence: [paste] Separate sources into: 1. Official resolver source 2. Strong supporting evidence 3. Weak or indirect evidence 4. Media interpretation 5. Social/rallying narrative 6. Evidence that feels persuasive but may not resolve the market End with the source I should treat as controlling.
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic