When to use it
When a board entry or personal thesis feels obvious.
Warning: Unsupported assumptions are where traps hide.
Related module: Biden Debate Collapse
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Assumption inventory with reversal conditions.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Hidden Assumption Trap
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
8–10: likely crowd mistake, research questions, decision note
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Biden Debate Collapse
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
My market view is: [paste] Extract every assumption. Separate: 1. Stated assumptions 2. Implied assumptions 3. Unsupported assumptions 4. Timing assumptions 5. Resolver assumptions 6. Assumptions that would reverse the view if false End with the one assumption I most need to verify.
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic