When to use it
After a real or historical market resolves.
Warning: Winning can hide bad reasoning; losing can punish good reasoning.
Related module: Market Autopsy
How not to use it
Do not paste vague summaries. Do not ask the AI what to bet. Do not accept an answer that ignores exact wording, timing, resolution source, counterarguments, or No-Play discipline. The output is a mirror, not a verdict.
Workflow use
Answer format to request
Good/bad process review separated from good/bad result.
Defense
Trap it helps defend against
Outcome Bias
Contract Clinic link
Related worksheet step
10: decision note
Historical practice
Related Second Stake module
Market Autopsy
Copy prompt
Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or your preferred AI tool. OddsXray gives the workflow; your AI tool does the writing and analysis.
Review this prediction-market decision. Market: [paste] Decision: [paste] Reasoning at the time: [paste] Outcome: [paste] Analyze: 1. Was the process good or bad? 2. Did a good result hide a bad decision? 3. Did a bad result punish a reasonable decision? 4. What was the key mistake or strength? 5. What should I change next time? 6. What trap label fits this decision?
Recommended output discipline
After the AI answers, force it into a final structure: exact contract read, main uncertainty, best counterargument, trap label, verification checklist, and whether Wait or No-Play is cleaner than forcing action.
Send this into Contract Clinic
Use this prompt alongside the worksheet so your market read stays attached to exact wording, resolver, timing, edge cases, crowd mistake, and a written decision note.
Open Contract Clinic