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OddsXray · The Board Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Firming Fast

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?

A formality at 98% — and ripping higher, up 48 on the day.

98%
Implied probability · Near Lock
▲ 48
24h move
$74K
Volume traded
2026-09-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.

Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

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