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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Markets
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Markets · Firming Fast

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?

The crowd's all but sure: 94% — somebody just moved it 81 points. The crowd's voting with cash.

94%
Implied probability · Near Lock
▲ 81
24h move
$69K
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.

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