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From the X-Ray desk · The Whale Files: we x-rayed Polymarket’s most famous wallets →
OddsXray · The Board Monday, August 03, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Crypto
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Crypto · Flat

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

A long way from likely — 5%, steady as she goes. It's all in the price.

5%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$4.6M
Volume traded
2027-01-01
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

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