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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
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Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Markets · Fading Fast

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Doubt's winning at 28% — money bolting fast. Conviction, priced live.

28%
Implied probability · Unlikely
▼ 14
24h move
$1.5M
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify.

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